In the episode of "HBR Live: The Future of Business," Robin Li, founder of Baidu, engaged in an in-depth conversation with Adi Ignatius, Editor-in-Chief of Harvard Business Review English Edition, discussing the trends in artificial intelligence (AI), the phenomenon of bubbles, and the future relationship between AI and humans. Li believes that while bubbles are inevitable in the early stages of technological waves, ultimately 1% of enterprises will emerge after the bubbles burst, creating significant value for society.
Li pointed out that the most notable change in the field of large models over the past 18 months is the accuracy of answering questions. He mentioned that people used to be skeptical of the answers provided by AI models, but this issue has now been largely resolved. Chatbots based on advanced models can now provide reliable answers. He illustrated AI's capability in providing specific information with the example of booking a hotel.
Discussing whether AI is in a bubble, Li said that historical technological waves, such as the internet bubble in the 1990s and mobile internet, have all experienced a cycle from excitement to disappointment. He predicts that generative AI will follow this pattern, with a few enterprises ultimately continuing to grow and create social value. He emphasized that although the industry is currently calmer and healthier than it was last year, it is still going through this phase.
Regarding whether AI will massively replace human jobs, Li is optimistic, believing that technological revolutions will replace the hardest jobs, creating new ones that are more comfortable, decent, and less stressful. He expects this transformation to take 10, 20, or even 30 years to gradually realize.
When discussing the characteristics of AI development in the Chinese market, Li said that China focuses more on application-driven approaches, paying attention to the fit between products and the market. He mentioned that although there are hundreds of basic large models on the market, people are more concerned about which applications will benefit from these models. Baidu is investing resources to reconstruct and rebuild each product, such as search and Baidu Wenku, based on large models, and is also creating digital humans for real-time live shopping.
Finally, Li predicts that in the next 5-10 years, generative AI will enable everyone to have the capabilities of a programmer, greatly enhancing productivity. He envisions a future where people will no longer need to use Python or C++, but can complete programming tasks using natural language, which will make the world completely different.