According to the latest report from the Tony Blair Institute, artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to replace between 1 million and 3 million jobs in the UK's private sector. However, despite some degree of unemployment in the short term, the increase in job losses over the long term will be limited to only tens of thousands, as the emergence of new technologies will also create new job opportunities. The Institute notes that over the next few decades, an estimated 60,000 to 275,000 jobs will be replaced each year.
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The report emphasizes that this level of job displacement is "relatively mild," as the average number of unemployed people in the UK over the past decade has been around 450,000. Currently, the number of employed people in the UK exceeds 33 million. With the rapid development of technologies like ChatGPT, the impact of AI is quickly rising on the political agenda.
The report also points out that although AI will lead to a certain number of job losses, it is expected that the impact will peak around 2030 and then gradually diminish. The Tony Blair Institute predicts that by then, the number of unemployed could increase by about 180,000, which is manageable compared to the current unemployment figure of about 1.4 million. The Institute believes that AI will promote dynamic changes in the labor market, enabling more workers to leave their original jobs to seek new opportunities.
To address this change, the Institute recommends upgrading the UK's labor market infrastructure, including establishing an early warning system to identify which jobs might be affected by AI in a timely manner. The report also forecasts that the deployment of AI could boost GDP growth by up to 1% in the next five years, rising to 6% by 2035.
Among the jobs affected by AI, administrative and secretarial positions are the most vulnerable, followed by sales, customer service, and banking and finance industries. These sectors will see the most significant time savings from AI deployment. On the other hand, industries requiring complex physical labor, such as construction, will be less affected.
Although some companies may initially save time and reduce staff by using AI, in the long term, the application of AI is expected to enhance employee productivity, thereby promoting economic growth and creating more job opportunities.
Key Points:
💼 AI is expected to replace between 1 million and 3 million jobs in the UK private sector, but the long-term increase in unemployment is limited.
📈 AI deployment is expected to boost GDP growth by 1% within five years, rising to 6% by 2035.
🤖 Jobs in administration, sales, and finance are most susceptible to AI, while industries like construction are less affected.
