Recently, at the DealBook summit hosted by The New York Times, OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman shared his views on the future of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). He stated that although OpenAI once predicted that AGI would "enhance humanity" and "automate the majority of intellectual labor," he now believes that the arrival of AGI may not be as significant as many people think.
Image source note: Image generated by AI, image authorized by service provider Midjourney
In the interview, Altman revealed that he predicts AGI will arrive earlier than most people imagine, possibly by 2025, and can be achieved with existing hardware. He mentioned that while the emergence of AGI will accelerate some processes, the overall societal changes will not happen as quickly as previously anticipated. "I expect the economic impact to be slower than people think, because there is a lot of inertia in society," he said. "So in the initial years, there may not be much change, followed by potentially significant changes."
At this summit, Altman seemed to downplay OpenAI's definition of AGI. He noted that there is still a long way to go from AGI to superintelligence, and the changes during this period could be quite complex. According to his previous statements, the arrival of superintelligence may take "thousands of days."
Moreover, the partnership agreement between OpenAI and Microsoft has been a focal point of attention. For OpenAI, announcing the arrival of AGI could provide an "escape route" from its profit-sharing agreement with Microsoft. This is crucial for OpenAI's future development, and Altman himself emphasized that the impact of AGI on the public is not as significant as previously imagined.
This dialogue has left many questions about the future of AGI. While OpenAI leads the way in technology, Altman's comments serve as a reminder that the progress of artificial intelligence may be slower and more complex than we think.
Key Points:
- 🤖 **AGI may arrive sooner than expected, but its impact is limited.**
- 📉 **Altman believes the economic impact will be slower than people imagine.**
- 📅 **There is still a long distance between achieving superintelligence and AGI.**