In a recent interview, Microsoft's AI Chief Mustafa Suleyman and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman had a significant disagreement regarding the timeline for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
Altman stated in a Reddit Q&A that AGI could be achieved with the current hardware conditions, while Suleyman expressed skepticism, believing that current hardware technology is insufficient to support the development of AGI.
Image source note: Image generated by AI, licensed from Midjourney
Suleyman pointed out that while the realization of AGI is "possible," he believes that this goal may take up to ten years to achieve. He emphasized that current hardware, such as Nvidia's GB200 series, cannot support the development of AGI. He predicts that in the next five to seven years, as technology continues to advance and each generation of hardware updates, the realization of AGI may become more feasible. He stated, "Each generation of hardware typically requires 18 to 24 months for an update, so five generations of updates could take up to ten years."
Furthermore, Suleyman distinguished between AGI and the "singularity." He believes that AGI is a general learning system capable of performing well across various human-level tasks, while the "singularity" refers to a system that can self-improve and rapidly surpass human intelligence. He mentioned that AGI could change human knowledge work in the next five to ten years, but this does not necessarily mean the arrival of the singularity.
Suleyman also noted that discussions about AGI are often overly dramatized, leading people to overlook specific technological capabilities. His focus is on how to build AI systems that are useful to humans, rather than pursuing theoretical superintelligence. He hopes to create AI partners that can assist and serve humanity.
In another meeting, Altman lowered the expectations for AGI, stating that its arrival may be sooner than most people think, but its impact might not be as significant. He pointed out that the emergence of AGI does not necessarily lead to drastic changes but is rather a continuous development process.
Suleyman also mentioned the collaborative relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI, suggesting that there is a natural tension in the partnership, but this tension is healthy and will continue to evolve over time.
Key points:
🌟 Suleyman believes that achieving AGI may take up to ten years, contrary to Altman's viewpoint.
🔧 He pointed out that current hardware cannot support the development of AGI, and that technology will gradually mature in the next five to seven years.
🤝 There is a tension in the collaboration between Microsoft and OpenAI, but this is a healthy state for both parties.
