According to research from the University of Cambridge, artificial intelligence (AI) tools have the potential to manipulate online users' decisions, influencing everything from purchasing products to choosing candidates to vote for. The study points out that a new market called the "Intention Economy" may emerge, where AI assistants can understand, predict, and manipulate human intentions, selling this information to companies that can profit from it.
Image Source Note: Image generated by AI, licensed from Midjourney
The research team from the University of Cambridge's Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence (LCFI) views the intention economy as the successor to the attention economy. In the attention economy, social networks sustain their operations by attracting user attention and placing advertisements. In the intention economy, tech companies that understand AI will sell the motivational information they gather about users, such as plans to book hotels or opinions on political candidates, to the highest bidder.
Dr. Jonny Pain, a technology historian at LCFI, stated, "For decades, attention has been the currency of the internet. Users share their attention on social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram, driving the growth of the online economy." He noted that without regulation, the intention economy will treat users' motivations as a new currency, sparking a "gold rush" for human intentions.
The study indicates that large language models (LLMs) that support AI tools like ChatGPT will be used to "predict and guide" user behavior, analyzing "intent, behavior, and psychological data." The research claims that while the attention economy allows advertisers to gain user attention through real-time bidding, in the intention economy, LLMs will be able to access user intentions in real-time, such as asking users if they are considering watching a certain movie or if they would like help booking movie tickets.
In this emerging intention economy, advertisers will be able to use generative AI tools to create personalized online advertisements. Additionally, the study mentions an AI model developed by Mark Zuckerberg's Meta, called Cicero, which has achieved "human-level" capabilities while playing the board game Diplomacy, a game that relies on inferring and predicting opponents' intentions.
The research further explores future scenarios where Meta might auction users' intentions to advertisers, such as for restaurant, flight, or hotel bookings. Although there is already an industry dedicated to predicting and bidding on human behavior, AI models will refine these practices into a "highly quantifiable, dynamic, and personalized" form.
Key Points:
🧠 AI tools may manipulate user decisions, forming a new market called the "Intention Economy."
💰 In the intention economy, user motivations will be treated as a new currency, and tech companies will sell this information.
🔍 AI models will analyze user data to predict intentions, helping advertisers target ads more accurately.
