On January 3, 2025, Zhou Yahui, the founder of Kunlun Wanwei, discussed the impact of the robot era on social structure in his personal investment notes. He pointed out that Kunlun Wanwei's mission is to gradually realize Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after 2030, aiming to enable everyone to better shape and express themselves. Zhou believes that despite various predictions about the realization of AGI both domestically and internationally, AGI will begin to be gradually achieved from 2030 onwards, at which point robots will officially enter human society.
Image Source Note: The image is AI-generated, provided by the licensing service provider Midjourney.
He mentioned that the AGI era could be referred to as the "robot era," particularly the "humanoid robot era." It is expected that by 2027, self-driving taxis will be widely adopted, and starting in 2030, robots will play significant roles in work and life. Zhou believes that although there are several technical challenges still to be addressed, the world's top AI scientists will gradually overcome these bottlenecks to promote the realization of AGI.
Zhou pointed out that before the widespread adoption of robots, several key technical issues need to be resolved, including spatial intelligence large models, motion control technology, and the commercialization of robots. In particular, regarding motion control, Zhou believes that the key to breaking this bottleneck lies in material science, where discovering nanomaterials with biological properties is crucial for achieving robotic motion control.
Additionally, Zhou analyzed the future prospects of the robotics industry. He believes that robots will become consumer goods similar to automobiles, with an initial market size of about $500 billion; as technology advances, the lifespan of robots will gradually increase, and the market size will grow to $5 trillion. Ultimately, the robotics industry could reach $50 trillion, becoming a vast market similar to the real estate industry.
Zhou also anticipates that the development of the robotics industry will have a significant impact on the global social structure. In the future, the unemployed population may account for more than half of the workforce, and governments will need to provide living expenses for these individuals. To offset this social expenditure, governments may impose high taxes on each robot.
Overall, Zhou believes that the robotics industry will bring about tremendous social change, redefining the ways we work, live, and govern society.
