According to the latest US Census Bureau data, the number of computer programming jobs in the United States has fallen to its lowest level since 1980, driven by the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence. This is despite the widespread adoption of the internet, which wasn't prevalent in 1980.
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Historically, in 1980, the US had over 300,000 computer programming positions. This number surged to over 700,000 during the internet boom of the early 2000s. Today, however, programming job opportunities have shrunk to roughly half that number.
Meanwhile, overall US employment has increased by nearly 75% over the past 45 years. It's important to note the distinction between computer programmers and software developers; programmers primarily focus on coding, while software developers design and implement more complex solutions.
Over the next decade (2023-2033), software development roles are projected to grow by 17%, but computer programming jobs are expected to decline by approximately 10%. Since 2023, the 12-month average employment in the computer programming industry has fallen by 27.5%. This phenomenon is closely linked to OpenAI's ChatGPT tool, launched the previous year, which efficiently handles coding tasks, reducing the need for extensive coding knowledge.
Some experts point to a significant correlation between the rising unemployment rate in the programming sector and the rapid development of AI. Mark Muro, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, states that the employment situation in the programming industry reflects the early impact of AI on the labor market. Some companies are starting to incorporate AI into hiring and firing decisions. For example, buy-now-pay-later company Klarna, after collaborating with OpenAI to develop a chatbot, announced a hiring freeze, claiming the bot could replace 700 full-time employees, although these roles were primarily in customer service, not programming.
However, the employment outlook for programmers may be evolving. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg suggests AI can handle the coding work of mid-level engineers. While some experts see the decline in programming jobs as an early sign of AI's impact on the job market, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna believes that even with AI automating some coding tasks, human programmers remain essential. He predicts that AI will only replace 20% to 30% of code writing jobs. Programmers will be required for more complex tasks, with AI assisting them in handling simpler, time-consuming work, thus boosting overall productivity.
Key Takeaways:
📉 US programmer employment has fallen to its lowest level since 1980, significantly impacted by AI.
🔍 Computer programming jobs are projected to decrease by 10% over the next decade, while software development roles will grow by 17%.
🤖 While AI can handle some coding tasks, human programmers remain crucial for complex work.
